Monday, January 30, 2012

How many possible outcomes are there in the NCAA basketball tournament?

Mathematically speaking, how many different possible outcomes are there in the NCAA men's basketball tournament? There are 64 (65 counting one-play in game) teams arranged in four different brackets. Each bracket starts with 16 teams. I am too lazy to figure out the math. Can someone explain the number of possible outcomes mathematically?How many possible outcomes are there in the NCAA basketball tournament?
A great question at a wonderful time of the year!



First notice that the 64 teams play 63 total games: 32 games in the

first round, 16 in the second round, 8 in the 3rd round, 4 in the

regional finals, 2 in the final four, and then the national

championship game.



32+16+8+4+2+1= 63



Now let's answer an easier question.



If there were four teams, and they played three games, how many

different ways would there be to fill out a bracket? You can write

them down. There are only eight of them. Where do that eight come

from? Well, there are three games, and you have two possible choices

for each game. Hence, 2^3 = 8 possibilities.



Now back to the real tournament. Since there are 63 games to be

played, and you have two choices at each stage in your bracket, there

are 2^63 different ways to fill out the bracket.



2^63 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808



That's more than nine quintillion possibilities.How many possible outcomes are there in the NCAA basketball tournament?
If you were to count the play-in game, that would increase the total number of games played from 63 to 64. So then the number of different ways to fill out the bracket, or the number of different possible outcomes in the Dance, would be 2^64, or 18,446,744,073,709,600,000.

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How many possible outcomes are there in the NCAA basketball tournament?
WOW! So much for trying to fill out 1 bracket for each outcome to guarantee you'll win in free pick'em leagues. (Don't take my idea...I'm gonna do it sometime. It's on my bucket list) ;)

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